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The National Bank of Romania and its economic forecast

Romania has entered a new period of economic growth, but it needs to take things slowly so as not to go through another traumatising experience. This statement was made by the governor of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Isarescu, in a meeting with Arab investors attending a forum of cooperation between Persian Gulf states and Romania, hosted by Bucharest.

According to Isarescu, Romania’s economy has made the necessary adjustments with regard to its deficits and is now prepared for a new cycle of sustainable growth. The National Bank’s estimates for this year point to a 1.5% economic growth, but the figure could be higher if significant investment were made in infrastructure and agriculture. These are precisely the areas in which the governor of the National Bank believes the Persian Gulf investors could become involved. Mugur Isarescu: “I believe infrastructure, in general, not only road, but also maritime infrastructure such as the port of Constanta and Galati, offers significant investment opportunities. Constanta is an extremely efficient gate to Europe. The Danube is also a navigation route that takes us to the heart of Europe. Agriculture is another good area for investment. By agriculture I am referring not only to the forecasts regarding the deterioration of the global food situation, but also to Romania’s untapped potential, including land, tradition, labour, and European funds.”

In other words, Romania is a country with a stable economy providing many investment opportunities. What else does it need? Governor Isarescu again:  “I don’t necessarily think it needs money, but entrepreneurs, viable projects and people capable of carrying these projects through. We are a country with many unfinished projects. 40,000 budget investment projects are unfinished. For me, as an economist, this almost says it all. It explains the economic growth and the high inflation rate, and why you can’t feel the difference despite the 5% of GDP allocated to investment.”

Mugur Isarescu told investors that the Central Bank in Bucharest will try to keep the inflation rate in check, and that it hopes to reduce it to less than 4% by the end of the year, through this is dependent upon international food and oil prices.

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